Pharmaceutical industry: reform to promote the development of innovation and seek a way out
- Issue Time
In 1-10 month of 2014, the business income of pharmaceutical manufacturing was 1 trillion and 857 billion 642 million yuan, up 13.12%, and the total profit was 178 billion 679 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, and obvious signs of slowing down. By the end of December 10, 2014, the CITIC industry index rose 23.46% since 2014, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 38.26%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 14.80 percentage points, and the medical industry was poor in 2014.
The growth of the industry is stable in 2015, and the policy is helping to develop
In 2014, the annual growth rate of pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue is expected to be between 13-14%, and the industry has continuity. We expect that the annual growth rate of 2015 will be 12-15%.
The focus of industry policy means the greatest opportunity. In 2015, the policy is concentrated in the fields of medical e-commerce, mobile medical, private hospitals, medical equipment and so on. These fields will give birth to greater opportunities. The pharmaceutical industry will be divided, and the beneficial varieties will be concentrated in the fields of exclusive products, low price drugs list, basic drugs bidding and so on.
Move along the tide and innovate the way out
There are more investment opportunities in 2015. We believe that the main investment opportunities are concentrated in the following aspects: (1) pay attention to the new round of drug bidding, and complete the whole bidding work in the first half of 2015. If the price maintains better, the varieties entering the tender will gain greater benefit. (2) innovation or merger and acquisition is expected to win in the future as long as one of them will win the future. (3) the rise of new models, such as medical e-commerce, mobile medical treatment and other new models, contains large investment opportunities, but due to the stage of "crossing the river through the rocks" stage, there will be a large number of enterprises to be killed and pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of scale and capital; (4) the investment machines of class cycle stocks will be expected to come, and if they are in calf in 2015 With good flexibility, it is expected to obtain funds.
In 2015, the growth of the pharmaceutical industry will remain stable. The bidding work will be completed in the first half of the year. The policies related to medical and mobile medical services will be gradually improved, the concentration of industry is further improved and the merger and acquisition tide will be lifted. Based on the above logic, we give the industry "optimistic" rating. Investment portfolio: to give the essence of pharmaceutical, Li Bang instruments, Kyushu, TSE Lee, Huahai pharmaceutical and modern pharmaceutical recommended rating.
1, industry merger and acquisition integration risk; 2, medical e-commerce and mobile medical new model of the traditional medical field impact risk; 3, drug price reduction risk; 4, drug bidding policy stricter; 5, drug safety incidents.